He who does not know in which year of the Sabbatical cycle he stands From Rashi’s commentary, it appears he intends to explain that the Second Temple was destroyed at the close of the Sabbatical year, specifically the second year of the Sabbatical cycle, meaning the year when the Sabbatical cycle begins anew. The Temple was destroyed in the year 420 since its construction. As most of the year had already passed, the Tanna who is counting the years of the destruction does not include that year in the count, but rather starts from the subsequent year, which is the second year of the Sabbatical cycle. Thus, one should add one year to the count of years given by the Tanna. Furthermore, Rashi explained that in Erchin 12b, a question is posed to Rabbi Yehudah: “How long did the Temple stand? Four hundred and twenty years. This leaves eight years out of four hundred for the Jubilee cycles, which if we divide by fifty, leaves eight. Together with the other twenty, this totals twenty-eight." This implies the Temple was destroyed in a Sabbatical year, not the year after! The Gemara concludes that the six years until Ezra ascended and consecrated [the land], which did not count Sabbatical years, are not included in the calculation. Therefore, it emerges that the destruction occurred twenty-two years after the Jubilee, which is indeed the year after the Sabbatical year. It seems, however, that due to the complexity of the matter, Rashi was not precise in his explanation that the Temple was destroyed in the four hundred and twentieth year. It was actually in the four hundred and twenty-first year, as evidenced explicitly by the Gemara in Erchin. Another difficulty is Rashi’s explanation that in Erchin, the question is posed to Rabbi Yehudah. This is incorrect; the question is posed according to the Rabbis, and there is no difficulty according to Rabbi Yehudah. The Gemara in Erchin states: “Is it possible that the year after the Sabbatical year is the second year [of the cycle]? Let us analyse this. How long did the Temple stand? Four hundred and twenty years. This means that apart from the year of destruction, there were four hundred years, comprising eight Jubilee cycles.” This aligns with the Rabbis’ view (who hold that the fiftieth year is a separate year, and the Sabbatical cycle restarts in the fifty-first year). “There were also twenty-two years. This implies it was destroyed in a Sabbatical year, meaning in the twenty-first year.” Some texts read that the destruction occurred in the sixth year of the Sabbatical cycle, referring to the four hundred and twentieth year discussed. The Gemara answers that this must be according to Rabbi Yehudah, who holds that the fiftieth year counts for both [Yovel and Shemitah]. “This leaves eight [years] from the eight Jubilee cycles, and twenty years; that’s twenty-eight. In the four hundred and twenty-first year the Temple was destroyed, showing it was destroyed in the year after the Sabbatical year.” Regarding the answer concerning Ezra – that the six years [before his consecration] are a different matter – Rav Ashi concludes with another resolution, even according to the Rabbis. The six years until Ezra ascended, which did not count Sabbatical years, are not included. If so, there were eight Jubilee cycles and fourteen additional years (twenty minus Ezra’s six). The four hundred and twenty-first year, following which the Temple was destroyed, indicates it was destroyed in the year after the Sabbatical year. This clearly demonstrates that the Temple was destroyed in the year 421. Therefore, it appears Rashi retracted his initial explanation, aligning with the Erchin passage as I have described. Rashbam also states that the Temple was undoubtedly destroyed in the year 421. When the Gemara says to add another year, it’s because the Tanna does not count the 21st year within the years of destruction but within the years the Temple stood. According to this, the Erchin passage aligns with this explanation. However, it is difficult to reconcile counting 421 years for the Temple’s existence, as everywhere else, only 420 years are counted. Indeed, it was stated earlier (9a) that Persia ruled for 34 years, Greece for 180, the Hasmoneans for 103, and Herod for 103, totalling 420 years. Year 421, however, seems to be the year of destruction. Another difficulty arises: according to this calculation, the common saying that the year 4000 was completed 172 years after the destruction would be incorrect. It should be 171 years, according to the Tanna who counts 421 years for the Temple’s existence. Furthermore, the entire preceding section of Gemara regarding adding 48 years is based on the premise that the initial count was 420 years. The same applies to the Gemara stating to add three years. If it was 421 years, only two years should be added. Rabeinu Tam raises another difficulty, applicable to both Rashi’s and Rashbam’s explanations. How can we understand the Gemara's sign, “And your sign is ‘for these two years’,” which refers to subtracting two years from each hundred years, aligning with Rabbi Yehudah and not the Rabbis? This differs from other halakhic signs, which involve adding or subtracting. It would have been simpler to provide a sign to add one year, as the Gemara suggests one should do to determine the current year of the Sabbatical cycle, for example, by quoting the verse, “He will be free to his house for one year!” Therefore, Rabeinu Tam favours the reading of Rabbeinu Chananel: “He who does not know in which year of the Sabbatical cycle he stands should subtract two years or add five years, and we should calculate generally by Jubilees and specifically by Sabbatical cycles. Your sign is ‘for these two years of famine in the midst of the land, and another five years in which there will not be plowing or harvesting’.” This does not refer to the years after the destruction at all, but rather to the count from the Greek kingdom, whose reign began in the 41st year of the Second Temple’s existence. Persia reigned for 34 years during the Temple’s existence, and the Greeks ruled for six years before their kingdom expanded, which are not counted, making forty years. In the 41st year, they began counting from their kingdom. Thus, the third year of their kingdom is the 43rd year of the Temple’s existence. This year was the first year of the Sabbatical cycle according to Rabbi Yehudah, as Sabbatical cycles began to be counted at the Temple's construction. This explains the Gemara’s statement that if one wishes to know the Sabbatical year, they should subtract two years from their count and begin counting Sabbatical cycles, or add five years to their count, and the result will be accurate. Now it is clear that the entire verse serves as a sign for both addition and subtraction. Rabbeinu Baruch in Sefer Ha'Terumah (Book of the Offering) rules that the halakha follows Rabbi Yehudah, who states that the fiftieth year counts for both [Jubilee and the start of the next Sabbatical cycle]. Despite Erchin 12a and Rosh Hashanah 9a stating that this is to exclude Rabbi Yehudah’s view, the halakha nevertheless follows Rabbi Yehudah. We find similar instances, such as in Ketuvot 10a, where the Gemara states that this excludes Rabban Shimon ben Gamliel, who says the Ketuvah (marriage contract) is a Torah obligation, even though the halakha is indeed that the Ketuvah is a Torah obligation. I have elaborated on this at length in Ketuvot. In Tosafot Rabbeinu Yehudah also, there is an implication that the halakha follows Rabbi Yehudah, as he calculates the current Sabbatical years based on forty-nine years per Jubilee. This is how he explains Rashi in our passage, that in the 420th year [of the Temple], the Sabbatical cycle began anew, and 172 years after the destruction, the four thousand year mark was completed. If we add the 420th year itself, that makes 173 years before the destruction. If we add the entire fifth millennium and fifteen years of the sixth, that’s 1188 years. Subtracting 1150 years in Jubilees, and taking two years from each hundred, leaving 23 years of Jubilee excess to add to the 38 years remaining from the 1150, we get 61. Fifty-six of these are seven sevens, leaving five years. According to this calculation, year 11 of the sixth millennium is when the Sabbatical cycle begins anew. According to Rashbam, who explained that the Temple was destroyed in the 421st year, and that this was the start of the Sabbatical year, the Sabbatical cycle would not restart until year 12 of the epoch. This is also true according to Rabeinu Tam. Go forth and calculate: 380 years before the Temple, the Greek kingdom began, and 172 years after the destruction, the four thousand year mark was completed, totalling 552 years. Subtracting two years, as the Gemara says “minus two years,” leaves 550. Adding to this the entire fifth millennium and 15 years of the sixth, we get 1565 years. Fourteen hundred of these go in two hundred year cycles, leaving 165. One hundred forty of these go in twenty year cycles, leaving 25. These comprise four years after seven-year cycles. Thus, in year 12 of the sixth millennium, the Sabbatical cycle began.
After four thousand and thirty-one [years] — This relates to Sanhedrin 97b, where Eliyahu tells Rav Yehudah the world will last at least eighty-five Jubilee cycles, with the Messiah coming in the final one. Rav Yehudah asks if he'll come at the start or end of it, but Eliyahu doesn't know. Four thousand two hundred years is eighty-four cycles. Our Gemara implies he'll come after most of the last cycle (after 4231). [So, why hasn't he arrived?] Rav Ashi explains that until 4231, one shouldn't expect him, but afterwards, one should.
